This dashboard is also built from DCF's dashboard data. The data is updated by DCF monthly. Source: myflfamilies.com/ocfw-dashboard.
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Current OOH Count
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Projected OOH — 12 months
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Projected OOH — 24 months
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Projected Monthly Entries — 12 mo out
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Projected Monthly Exits — 12 mo out
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Children in out-of-home care — historical & forecast
OOH Population Projection
⚠ Projections are model-based estimates. Actual outcomes depend on policy, funding, and factors not captured in historical data.
Historical
Forecast
80%
95%
Entries minus exits per month
Net Flow Forecast
Growing (positive)
Shrinking (negative)
Forecast
80%
Children involved in investigations — historical & forecast
Children in Investigations Projection
Historical
Forecast
80%
95%
Investigations data not available at this level
Monthly removals into care
Entries Forecast
Historical
Forecast
80%
95%
Monthly exits from care
Exits Forecast
Children receiving in-home services — historical & forecast
In-Home Children Projection
Historical
Forecast
80%
95%
Methodology — Bootstrap simulation (2,000 paths) of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing
models fit on DCF data. OOH count is projected by accumulating net flow from the current census.
Exits are modeled by type (Adoption, Reunification, Guardianship, Age of Majority, Other) for all
scopes; regional type-level data available from Jul-2022 (47 months).
Validation MAPE — statewide: entries 2.5%, exits 8.9% ·
Regional entries: 9–28% · Regional exit types: higher uncertainty in smaller regions
is expected and reflected in wider prediction intervals.